Tuesday, April 11, 2006

Iran Announces Uranium Enrichment

Well, it's official. Iran was not developing it's nuclear technologies for energy purposes, as they claimed less than a month ago. All this just after their announcement of developing a super torpedo.

I'm a bit speechless. What now? I'm sure tomorrow this will be all over the news and every pundit and talking head will have a viewpoint, but the airwaves are pretty much silent after this announcement. Maybe that's a good thing.


Blogger Dustin said...

Well, I'm skeptical of how useful that torpedo would be in battle. Principally, submarines are hard to find in the first place. We still have trouble finding enemy subs ourselves, and I doubt the Iranians have the technology or the experience to get the better of the USN.

If a sub is located, even a big one is a small target. 233 mph in the water? The slightest deviation in course and it would miss. Is its sonar good enough to track and detonate a warhead close enough to a modern US submarine? That's very doubtful.

It might be effective against the Russian diesel boats that've been sold to China, India, and other countries. I don't think the west has any diesel subs anymore, though.

The ballistic missile described in the same article is a much bigger concern.

Anyway, I maintain that our hands are tied when it comes to Iran. Thanks to our adventures in Iraq, we can't do a damn thing. Even with all the hardware we have in Iraq, the Iranians have a superior force in the region and WOULD strike back if we hit them. And I doubt we have the anti-aircraft over there to protect ourselves.

Their response is a given, and they have two fronts to strike at: Afghanistan and Iraq.

And the craziest thing about this is, if NATO decides to strike and we stay out of it, Iran will probably still retaliate against us. I don't think they have allies that would engage us directly, or else I'd say there's the threat of WW3 here.

So that's why neither the United States nor Europe can make a move against them. It'll come down to diplomacy, but there's no credible threat of force so I think we'll just have to live with Iran becoming a nuclear power.

Wed Apr 12, 03:31:00 AM 2006  
Blogger Steve said...

It's a bit long, but I think you'll find this post over at Needlenose interesting. It's definitely not anything you'll hear in the MSM.

Thu Apr 13, 09:30:00 PM 2006  
Blogger Dustin said...

If someone told you in 1984 that Pakistan would be a nuclear power in ten years, would you have believed it? Not me. After all, many countries have tried and failed. Brazil and South Africa come immediately to mind, but there are others. Pakistan succeeded because it had a worthwhile enemy: India. Given Kashmir's history, that's a lot of motivation. Iran looks to the East, and what do they see? Americans who are not leaving Afghanistan anytime soon, if ever. The look to the west and see still more Americans in Iraq. Further to the west is Israel, another sworn enemy. Iranian scientists have access to russian nuclear experts and have had some help from Pakistan, as well. There's no doubt in my mind they want the bomb and will get it sooner or later. Nuclear arms are expensive, but they're effective deterrents and are much less expensive than maintaining huge standing armies.

Strategically, it makes sense for them. Especially if they can keep Iraq unstable enough to keep us war weary. Contrary to what that article says, the Iranians have a very capable air defense network that is light years ahead of anything the Iraqis ever had (1991 or 2003). Yes, the bulk of it was developed by the Soviets, but they were pretty good at that kind of thing. Likely good enough to minimize the damage of anything short of an air war, at least. A couple hundered sorties won't get the job done. Their position is good enough that they can withstand some pretty heavy blows.

An alternative to a strike is economic sanctions, but it doesn't look like there's much support for that at the moment. Iran's chief exports are oil and natural gas, and the Asian market is now plenty big enough that Europe's sanctions won't hurt that much, anyway.

They're making all this noise right now because they can get away with it.

Fri Apr 14, 01:03:00 AM 2006  
Blogger Josh said...

In my opinion World War 3 started with the invasion of Afganistan, then it grew to Iraq. Iran is just going to exacerbate it into a full scale global conflict, with nuclear weapons. It's just a VERY scary world we live in.

Fri Apr 21, 04:32:00 PM 2006  

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